How inflation will grow in Russia in 2024

The rise in prices in Russia in the past year worried most Russians: some were worried about the rising costs of repairing and servicing their favorite car, others were worried about the rise in prices for eggs and chicken meat. Olga Belenkaya, head of the macroeconomic analysis department of the Financial Group Finam, summed up inflation for the past year especially for Mail.ru Finance and gave a forecast for 2024.

According to Rosstat , inflation at the end of 2023 amounted to 7.42%. Rosstat uses an internationally recognized methodology for calculating inflation, and its estimates are the only official measure of consumer price dynamics.

At the same time, household inflation estimates are significantly higher: according to InFOM, in December, the median inflation estimate over the past 12 months increased from 15.1% to 17%, and the estimate of expected inflation in 12 months increased from 12.2% to 14 .2%. These are very high values, the highest since March 2022.

Such a strong gap between “perceived” inflation and official data may be due to the fact that a number of goods and services rose very much in price last year, and their share in the personal consumer basket of respondents may be higher than in the Rosstat basket.

Among the most strongly increased prices from the end of 2022 to December 25, 2023 are eggs (+58.97%), tomatoes (+51%), bananas (+46%), flights in economy class (+32.9% ), cabbage (+29%), chickens (+27%), apples (+20%), new domestic passenger car (+17%), lamb (+17%).

Results - 2023

Last year ended with high inflation expectations not only of the population, but also of enterprises. According to monitoring data from the Bank of Russia, price expectations of enterprises in December were near the maximum values ​​since April 2022. Increases were observed in agriculture, mining, transportation and storage, and services.

Among the factors for increasing costs, respondents noted the rise in prices of components and materials, fuels and lubricants and logistics, as well as the increase in the cost of servicing loans and increasing wages to attract and retain workers in the face of a shortage of personnel.

Monitoring by the Bank of Russia notes a decrease in price expectations of enterprises in trade, however, information in Kommersant that manufacturers and distributors at the end of last year notified retailers of an increase from the beginning of 2024 by 5-20% of selling prices for a wide range of goods (dairy products , coffee, juices, rice, confectionery) shows that in trade, enterprises also see reasons for raising prices: changes in exchange rates, higher transportation costs, increased personnel costs, renewal of the vehicle fleet, rental of warehouses.

At the end of 2023, representatives of dealerships surveyed by Forbes reported that from the beginning of 2024 the cost of new cars is expected to increase in almost all segments, and by the end of the year the price increase could be 10-25%. The explanations are the same - changes in exchange rates, logistics costs, rising borrowing costs.