For a long ruble: economists revealed the goals of the new privatization
This week, the Ministry of Finance talked about plans to privatize about 30 companies. Mail.ru finance interviewed analysts and found out whether it would help to attract record funds to the economy, which the population and companies managed to accumulate in their accounts.
The Ministry of Finance is waiting for the government's decision on the list of 30 companies proposed by the Ministry for privatization in 2024, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said in an interview with Russia 24 TV channel.
"Indeed, the Ministry of Finance has prepared such proposals, the government has sent these proposals to the relevant departments on the ownership of the companies, and I hope that next year we will be able to discuss the measures proposed by the Ministry of Finance and take appropriate decisions," Siluanov said.
The agency proposes to carry out privatization without losing the controlling stake by the state. State packages are preserved in almost all key sectors - from financial to mechanical engineering, aviation and energy.
At the same time, there were no proposals to reduce the state's share in Sberbank from the department. Although the head of the country's largest bank, German Gref, considers the privatization of Sber a good solution.
"If the state at some point in time decided to privatize 25% of Sberbank, and 25% of the shares were enough to control the state, it would increase the investment attractiveness of the Russian market and stimulate the entire financial sector," said Gref.
How much money do companies and citizens have?
At the same time, the authorities are solving the problem of attracting long investments in the economy. The accumulation of Russians and companies has been growing steadily in recent years, being replaced by a slight decrease. Since July 2022, the amount of savings has been continuously updating records. Thus, according to the statistics of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, savings on corporate accounts and bank deposits increased by 20% to 27.2 trillion rubles in 2018, the population - by 5% to 27.3 trillion rubles.
By January 1, 2023, the accumulations of companies already amounted to 47.7 trillion rubles, by November 1 - 53.8 trillion rubles.
By January 1, 2023, individuals had accumulated 40.9 trillion rubles in bank accounts (without escrow accounts for the purchase of real estate), and by November 1, the amount had increased to 46.975 trillion rubles.
Financial security of the country
Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, speaking to the State Duma with a report on the work of the government, called it an important task to achieve the country's financial sovereignty.
"Access to Western resources is now closed. But this is a good opportunity to continue to develop your own stock market and the banking sector," the head of government said. He called for "expanding the set of tools to attract "long" money to the economy."
Privatization and long-term investment in the economy are good opportunities to increase economic growth and replenish the budget without increasing the monetary issue and possible devaluation of the ruble.
"Given that next year a significant increase in budget expenditures is expected, the privatization of packages in large state-owned companies looks quite expedient, for example, as an alternative to other ways of replenishing the budget, such as weakening the ruble, increasing taxes and fees
"Of the large state banks, I think VTB may be of interest as an object for privatization. The state now owns about 61% of the bank's ordinary shares, and taking into account the "prefs" the state share in the bank's capital exceeds 90%," said the economist. - In this regard, VTB may be a good candidate for privatization, although due to the complex structure of capital, it will not be easy to do this. Rosselkhozbank and Gazprombank may also deserve attention, although the latter is owned by the state not directly, but through Gazprom. It is also possible to sell shares of smaller creditors."
In order for privatization to have a positive effect on the economy, it would be worth starting with the largest assets, said Valery Emelyanov, an expert on the stock market of BCS World of Investments.
In his opinion, it is most logical to transfer into private hands the most problematic and systemically significant companies, where the state does not cope or its intervention only aggravates the situation. For example, Gazprom, VTB, Russian Railways, Aeroflot, Avtodor.
"But whether the state will be ready for the fact that private individuals will carry out painful reforms, staff reductions, tariff growth is a big question," said the economist.
"The second great privatization has been discussed and prepared for more than 10 years. During all this time, the country's leadership has not dared to give up its assets. Or rather, the current management of banks and companies is not ready. They have a powerful administrative resource, and there are always many arguments why they should be left at the helm for some more years," the analyst believes.
"This information is for informational purposes only and is not an individual investment recommendation."
